A tropical wave in the Caribbean is moving west northwest through the Caribbean. By this weekend it could become a tropical depression in the northwest Caribbean.
There are multiple cold fronts headed into the Gulf of Mexico through early next week and that means high pressure will setup over the area. This should steer the system northwest/west into Mexico. Right now, this setup would keep tropical threats to the south of the area, but we’ll watch it closely.
Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020
For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A tropical wave located over the west-central Caribbean Sea is expected to move westward over the next couple of days, and produce a broad area of low pressure over the western Caribbean Sea by Thursday night or Friday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.
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