Covid-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are rising in places like Houston, Texas, where hospitals warn they are at risk of being overwhelmed by new patients. | Mark Felix/AFP/Getty Images

By the time coronavirus deaths start rising again, it’s already too late.

There is something confounding about the US’s new coronavirus spikes: Cases are rising, but the country is seeing its lowest death counts since the pandemic first exploded.

The numbers are genuinely strange to the naked eye: On July 3, the US reported 56,567 new Covid-19 cases, a record high. On the same day, 589 new deaths were reported, continuing a long and gradual decline. We haven’t seen numbers that low since the end of March.

When laypeople observe those contradictory trends, they might naturally have a follow-up question: If deaths are not increasing along with cases, then why can’t we keep reopening? The