//US House races: Democrats predicted to expand majority

US House races: Democrats predicted to expand majority

Democrats are expected to expand their majority in the House of Representatives by winning several election races on Tuesday night, an expansion that would build on Democrats’ impressive wins in the 2018 midterm elections, when they gained 41 House seats.

The Cook Political Report, which provides non-partisan election and political analysis, predicted on Monday that Democrats will gain between 10 and 15 seats in the House, which has 435 members. “A combination of President Trump’s unpopularity in the suburbs, a fundraising disadvantage, and 32 open seats for the GOP to defend (to Democrats’ dozen) has weighed down Republicans’ prospects,” said David Wasserman, of Cook Political Report.

“Tonight, House Democrats are poised to further strengthen our majority – the biggest, most diverse, most dynamic, women-led House majority in history,” The Democratic House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, said prior to the polls closing, according to the New York Times.

Democrats currently hold 232 seats, while Republicans have 197. There are five vacancies in the House, and one Libertarian-held seat, CNN said. The GOP would need 218 seats to gain control. Such an upset is exceedingly unlikely.

Across the country, Republican candidates are going after freshman Democrats who won in the 2018 midterms. Meanwhile, Democrats are hoping to land key GOP districts, USA Today explained. Texas, which is an overwhelmingly red state, is key to this battle. Under Wasserman’s analysis, there are six “vulnerable” Republican congressional seats in Texas.

Congressman Michael McCaul, whose district spans from Houston’s suburbs to Austin, was thought to be dealing with “real risk of defeat” against Democrat Mike Siegel. With 54.89% reporting, McCaul is in the lead with 50% of votes. Siegel presently has 48%.

In Ohio, Democrats believe that a long-held Republican seat representing Cincinnati-area suburbs has become more competitive. While GOP representative Steve Chabot is vying for his 13th term, Democrats hope that their candidate, healthcare executive Kate Schroder, will draw voters who are concerned with health policy, per the Post. With 70.18% reporting, Chabot now leads with 50.1%, to Schroder’s 46.6%.

A congressional race near Atlanta, Georgia, however, might test Democrats’ success in courting suburban voters. The district’s Republican representative, Rob Woodall, is retiring. Democrat Carolyn Bourdeaux, who lost to Woodall in 2018, is the 2020 candidate against Republican nominee Rich McCormick. As the district remains conservative, the result will give insight into Democrats’ get-out-the-vote efforts in the state, the Washington Post reported. With 15% reported, per the New York Times, Bourdeaux has 55.3% to McCormick’s 44.7%.

Another key congressional race is in South Carolina, where Democrat Joe Cunningham is fighting to keep the seat he won over Republicans in 2018. Cunningham was the first Democrat to take a House seat from the GOP in South Carolina since 1986, and Republicans began eyeing Cunningham’s seat shortly after he was elected as part of their plan to retake the House in 2020.

This South Carolina contest has become the most expensive US House race in state history. Cunningham’s fundraising totals $6m, while his Republican opponent, state representative Nancy Mace, has raised more than $4m between the primary and general elections, AP notes. With 37.26% reporting, Mace has 51.7% and Cunningham 48.3%.

In New Mexico, contests are testing Democrats’ hold on the state. Democrat Xochitl Torres Small, who represents southern New Mexico in Congress, is fighting to keep her seat in a historically Republican-leaning district.

The extremely close race – a rematch between Torres Small and her 2018 opponent, former Republican state representative Yvette Herrell – will depend on voter turnout, per AP. In 2018, Torres Small bested Herrell by less than 2% of the votes, New Mexico’s KRWG Public Media reported.

Another congressional race to watch is unfolding in the New York District covering Staten Island and southern Brooklyn. This is the only swing district in the overwhelmingly Democratic New York City. Max Rose, the Democratic incumbent, is squaring off against Republican state assembly member Nicole Malliotakis.

The bitter race has featured weeks of negative attack ads, with Malliotakis insisting she is the law-and-order candidate. This position, of course, is also touted by Trump – who won Staten Island in 2016. Trump is supporting Malliotakis in the race, according to AP. With 86.91% reporting, Malliotakis is in the lead with 58.4%, to Rose’s 41.6%.

Results from Indiana’s 5th district, an open-seat race that speaks to both parties’ fight for the suburbs, are slowly trickling in. This district, which covers suburban Indianapolis, marked a major victory for Trump in 2016 – with him beating Hillary Clinton by almost 12 points. With about 76.17% reporting, Republican Victoria Spartz has 51.7% while Democratic competitor Christina Hale presently has 44.3%.

Virginia’s 5th district has also attracted attention as a potentially watershed toss-up. This area, which covers the University of Virginia in Charlottesville, is mostly rural. Trump won this region by 11 points in 2016, according to CNN.

In 2018, Republican Denver Riggleman won this district by approximately 6%.

While conflict within the GOP over their candidate had made a 2020 victory uncertain, Good has been besting Webb so far. With 97.58% reporting, Good has 54.1% of votes to Webb’s 45.9%.