A resident of a senior living complex in Peabody, Massachusetts, waves from a window at family members. Nursing homes and assisted living centers in the US have varied widely in Covid-19 precautions. | Pat Greenhouse/Boston Globe via Getty Images

The virus is reaching some of the state’s older, more vulnerable residents.

When coronavirus cases began to spike again, experts outlined the worst-case scenario: that those spikes, initially concentrated among younger people who were more cavalier once businesses reopened, would eventually migrate to older people — particularly long-term care facilities, where so many seniors have already died from Covid-19.

And now, according to a new data analysis from the Kaiser Family Foundation, it seems those fears are being realized. The question is how bad it will get.

Over a two-week period from late June to July 10, in 23 states that KFF characterized as “hot