A security guard hands out an instruction sheet outside of an unemployment agency office in Detroit, Michigan, on March 26, 2020. | Jeff Kowalsky/AFP via Getty Images

A terrifying forecast from the Congressional Budget Office.

A surprisingly strong May jobs report suggests that the bounce-back from the Covid-19 recession started faster than most analysts were expecting. But that doesn’t mean the economy is out of the woods.

In the early stages of a recovery, promising economic signs, like improved employment numbers, could mean the US is on track to return to pre-recession levels of economic activity. Or those signs could just point to a partial recovery, one that stalls out at 70, 80, or even 90 percent — all of which would still indicate serious recession conditions.

Unfortunately, a partial turnaround is exactly what the Congressional Budget Office’s May macroeconomic forecast says