Icy precipitation may impact the Upstate Thursday

  • By cvbizz
  • February 16, 2021
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As of 2pm EST Tuesday: Thursday is expected to have active weather as large southern storm system moves across the region. Combination of a thin layer of cold air at the surface supported by cold-air damming, combined with warm advection above it from the incoming system, produces the threat for significant freezing rain for any locations with surface temperatures below 32F. Latest BUFKIT soundings have a pronounced warm noise in high-res models, as the NAM and HREF, with the GFS somewhat more muted. Surface temperatures at lower levels of Western NC (like KAVL) are just above freezing, and may be warm enough for the event to be rain, but any higher elevations could see impactful ice with model projections up to a half inch or more in a few scattered places. Depending on strength of warm air aloft, some sleet or even snow will also be possible, but ice currently looks to be the dominant weather type. Winter Watch will be issued for Thursday, with an expected eventual Ice Storm warning or advisory should things continue to progress as expected.

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